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UVA COVID-19 model predicts cases will peak at end of September

17 August 2020 Covid19 Luray/Page County Shenandoah County Front Royal/Warren County Winchester Frederick County Clarke County News


The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute released updates on its COVID-19 model.

The weekly report, released Aug. 14, says the modeling methodology has been refined to closely track past and current trends. The new modeling puts Virginia on a course to peak the week of Sept. 27 with 14,743 weekly cases. The Virginia Department of Health reported 6,956 new cases this week.

Anticipated seasonal changes in the fall could lead to a surge beginning around Labor Day with schools and universities reopening, changes to workplace attendance, and the impact of weather patterns.

The model estimates that Virginia’s cautious approach to reopening prevented 922,941 confirmed cases in Virginia since May 15 compared to a hypothetical scenario where interactions returned to 100% of pre-pandemic levels upon entering the Forward Virginia Plan.

In addition, the transmission rate of COVID-19 remains below 1.0 and the surge appears to be declining, but case incidence remains high.

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